The Greatest Game Out There

Ahh... the political season is upon us again.

After a quite summer and a real sleeper of a Provincial Election (The only excitement I saw during the election was when a voter at the poll refused to tell me his name -- that's another story) we're back at it full force.

Harper has made a strong opening move with this week's Throne Speech. In my opinion, he's forcing an election. Let's look at his recent statements plus the throne speech:

• He has stated that if the opposition parties vote to pass the Throne Speech, they have an obligation to pass any and all legislation mentioned in the speech. (Also known as, "I double-dog dare you to vote this down!")
  
• A clear abandonment of the Kyoto Accord.
• Scrapping the gun-registry.
• Several violent crime and anti-terror bills which were voted down in the last session have been combined into a single omnibus bill and is first up on the order paper. This bill has been specifically designated as a matter of confidence.
• Extending the Afghan mission to 2011.

Naturally, Layton and Duceppe immediately stated that they would not support this while Dion has been conspicuously absent. Ignatieff gave a brief interview where he spoke lots, but said absolutely nothing.

Layton and Duceppe can bluster with impunity. If an election were called tomorrow, or 6 months from now will make very little difference to them... what do they have to gain or lose? A dozen seats? Out of 304? Most likely insignificant. It would take a near-complete collapse of AT LEAST one the major federal parties (ie: Liberal and/or Conservative) to install Jack Layton at 24 Sussex as anything higher than the gardener and, with respect to Gilles Duceppe the numbers just aren't there. Quebec only has 75 seats.

Edit: I suppose it IS possible... assuming that the Bloc sweeps Quebec with 75 seats and the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP each win 74 seats, the Green Party wins it's first seat ever, then 10 more (maybe some Independents and fringe parties too) we could have a separatist Prime Minister.... and I thought I had has conflicts of interest in the past!

75 Bloc
+74 Liberal
+74 Conservative
+74 NDP
+11 Green and Other
-----
308 Seats

But, back to the original topic, it looks to me like Harper is trying to goad the opposition into forcing an election. He can then use the Throne Speech as his campaign platform. What could be better than having the Governor General make your first campaign speech? He can then play the wounded man and talk about how he wanted the parliament to work, he wanted to do what was right for Canadians, he was sabotaged by an opposition who are only thinking of their own opportunism. Bullshit! As I said to Paul Martin in 2005, treating a minority government like a majority is a good way to ensure your next job is Leader of the Opposition.

All that being said, Harper has the most to gain, or at least the least to lose at this point. Lets face it, the Liberals are bleeding from every orifice right now plus a few others they've just found. I'm sure Dion is looking for a way to oppose the Throne Speech while still letting it pass (I foresee a flu epidemic in the Liberal back benches in the next couple of weeks). Even if this works, he'll still have the Crime Omnibus coming up for vote in as little as three weeks, back to square one.

The short answer though is, that if we're going to the polls anytime soon it's 100% Stephen Harper's doing. How much do you want to bet that most people won't get that?