$700bn bailout passes US Senate...

... and scheduled for a vote in the House of Representatives today or tomorrow.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/01/us-bailout.html?ref=rss

The strikes me as a horrendously bad idea and guaranteed to be inflationary. Bankers have been making loans to people whom they knew couldn't repay them for years and are now seemingly in shock that their businesses are in trouble. I recall a time when making bad business decisions meant your business would fail, that was a strong incentive to make the right choices.

As for the inflation side, they've just monetized $700bn of debt, essentially thrown the printing presses into overdrive. This will have a devaluing effect on the US dollar and will therefore drive prices up. At the same time cash strapped consumers will have more and more trouble making ends meet. This means more bankruptcies, more foreclosures and more bad debt that the banks will have to write down (or that the US gov't will have to monetize).

Now admittedly, a lot of this will happen whether they pass this or not, it's really all a matter of time. In the opinion of this author, I'd rather see it crash quickly so we can get over it quickly as opposed to stretching it out over years or decades (it will take a LONG time to repay $700bn in loans, even if the US balances its budget).

The other question is who will the US sell all this debt to? Until recently China has been covering most of the US debts. As of last week, however, the Chinese Central Bank has forbidden Chinese banks from lending to US banks. So who is going to pickup all this debt?

Now, for the Canadian perspective, Stephen Harper says that this isn't a problem for us, that our economy is fundamentally different. Well, he's right, we are fundamentally different. We have a resource based, energy based, export driven economy... with one primary customer. Let's remember that 80% of those exports go to the US. If they're not buying, it won't matter what our fundamentals are. Cover the US on a world map... Canada is as isolated as Australia.

On a final note, this is about where I think is what we ought to be doing right now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMBZDwf9dok&feature=related

Evacuation protocols

Yesterday I was looking at CNN (that's unusual in and of itself as I tend to stick to Canadian media.) and saw one of those oh-so-typical photos: a 10 lane divided highway with one side completely jammed, stop and go, and the other side deserted.

What I want to know, is why are they doing this? More importantly, why are there not people guiding motorists onto the other side of the highway to make use of the extra space? Now admittedly, an operation like this would need co-ordination, people to stay back and direct traffic. This is where the police, reserves and citizen volunteers come in. A couple mailings, and some public service announcements on radio and TV would get the ball rolling, then it's just a bit of practice...

In a city like Toronto, where every highway on-ramp has a gate across it it would be even easier. All you need to do is close the gate at every second on-ramp and put an "Evacuation Route ->" sign on the opposite direction's off-ramp and move on to the next one.

Again, more people will need to be involved to make this work. Perhaps as an extension of the police auxilary... maybe the "Evacuation Corps". Give it a name and a special hat and the volunteers will come. Maybe a tax credit as well....

Overly moral dating site

Most of you know that I'm single and getting tired of it. Well, on Thursday night I decided to take a look at eHarmony.

Having been exposed to the worst parts of the Internet for well over a decade now, I thought I had seen everything. eHarmony surprised me though.

First off I noticed that they only service "Men seeking Women" and "Women seeking Men". They've made no provision for same-sex couples at all.

Then I start going through their questionare, well that took an hour. There were close to one hundred questions to answer, strangely church kept coming up... well I answered them all. Finally at the end I'm informed that they cannot help me because I'm not single. Well, that's true. I've been separated for 4 years now but am still legally married, that's just a matter of paperwork though. They instead referred me to their "eHarmony Marriage" service which will help me save my marriage. Yeah, ok.

Well, I said separated in the interests of complete accuracy, I'll just update my status and get on with it. No such luck. I don't have access to that information. A bit of hunting through their FAQs and I find this (excerpted):

"We understand that no broad general policy can cover every conceivable situation, but we still have to create rules based on what's best for most of the people, most of the time. We look forward to welcoming you as an eHarmony member once your divorce is final.

Once your divorce has been finalized, please use the link below to e-mail us with the following information:

1. The county and state of your divorce proceedings
   
2. The name of the judge
3. The date your divorce was finalized"

Seems a little overly moralistic to me. That's fine, I'll take my money elsewhere...

Beautiful Women with Idiot Men

First of all, don't worry, this isn't one of those "poor me, we nice guys always get the shaft" posts. I'm not looking for pity, just sharing an insight.

There seems to be a surplus of attractive, intelligent women dating or married to idiots, assholes and knuckle-draggers. The obvious reason is that "women only go for bastards". Well, I've been thinking about this one for a little while and think the obvious answer is the wrong answer.

Having spoken with both Rob and Andreas (many of those who know me know these two as well so credit where credit is due) I think this needs to go out into distribution. Nice guys, listen up!

So last week I met someone whom I'm interested in (no details, except to say I'm trying to get her number as we speak, I need to work through her friends for that so I'm sure all kinds of background checks are being done). My initial thought, which kept me from saying anything when I was actually with her and could speak to her was, "Yeah, but she's way out of my league...". I've done that many times over the years... usually considered myself not good enough to even ask.

Well, this week I've been thinking about that. What I've come up with is so what? There is no harm in asking. What the worst thing that could happen? She says no and my life continues as it has been? Well, isn't that where I am now? Where's the downside to that?

Note: I suppose the actual worst thing that could happen is that we could hit it off, get married and on out wedding night she could kill me. I don't think that's likely, I'm a better judge of character than that (at least a bit).

I shared that with Rob on Tuesday and he agreed. He also added the following (I'm paraphrasing): "Most nice guys are intimidated by beautiful women, think exactly what you think and stay quiet. Only the idiots and assholes actually ask so they're the ones who win in the end."

Andreas backed that up today with a quote from Cameron Diaz about how she can't find a date.

I guess this is all true.

Now, assignment time. Nice guys like me - Forget this "out of my league" shit and if you're interested, say something! I know it's hard. Believe it or not it's just as hard at 34 as it is at 17... I'm sure it won't be easier when I'm 68 either... What's the worst that can happen? You get shot down? OH WELL! You can't win unless you enter the game.

Idiots, assholes and knuckle-draggers (you know who you are) - Just crawl back under your damp rock. It's our turn now.

Prices at the grocery store

Ok, bear with me while I pull my tinfoil hat a little lower over my ears... that's better. (for the record I don't know who the guy in the picture is... he's on the Wikipedia "Tinfoil Hat" article and it's a public domain photo...)

I think the grocery store is screwing with us again. About three weeks ago I was in there and the price of everything had gone up significantly (in many cases the price doubled).

This I can understand. Between falling dollars (yes, the Canadian dollar is doing very well against the US dollar, that just means it's not being devalued quite as fast (more on this one later...)), high commodity prices (partially due to falling dollars) and high energy costs (again, falling dollars are a major factor here as well) I expected prices to go up.

When I went in last week I noticed that almost everything in the packaged food sections had stickers advertising lower prices. I thought, "that's nice to see," and went on with my business.

This week I actually took a closer look, while scouring my memory to see if I could remember what the price had been.

From what I can tell (based on faulty memory), the price of everything went up a lot three weeks or so ago then came down a little. For example, something they're advertising for sale at $1.99 (reduced from $2.19) was $1.39 a month ago. Big increase, small decrease. Leave the price high(er) for a week so they can legititely say that the price has been reduced. Get people mad then show how you're helping them. Since most people don't pay that much attention, all they see is the card in front of them saying that this product is $0.20 less than they say it was before.

Also, I notice that this did not happen with fresh foods. Their prices went up and stayed up. A 4-pack of peppers I would have paid $4.99 for a month ago, and $5.99 a week ago is now $7.99. Chicken went from $12.50/kilo to $21/kilo.

Ok... not exactly a conspiracy theory but if you give me a couple weeks I'll find some way to link this to Roswell, JFK, the US Federal Reserve (well, the falling dollar again...), 9/11, DDT and China.

Rail Travel

** This was actually written on Saturday June 14, 2008 **

As I write this I'm on the train between Ottawa and Toronto. It's been a kinda crappy trip. I'm heading home a day early because technical problems kept me from doing the work I was supposed to, which also means that my wallet is coming home lighter than I expected, the weekend billings will cover my travel and not much else. I'm still in a good mood though, reflective but very positive.

I'm sure this is influenced by the fact that I'm traveling first class. That's the kind of thing that always cheers you up (I think it's the free booze). It's not just that though... Rail travel is still kind of magic for me.

My father was a railroader and I've been taking the train since I was a toddler (my mother would tell horror stories about hauling me screaming through Union station because a train had scared me). Once I got over my initial fear though I really came to enjoy it. I've used cars, buses and planes to travel, but rail remains my favorite.

There's just something a little magic about riding on a train, something you don't get using other modes. I like the way the world looks through a train window... especially when I'm sipping cognac after a nice meal. It's not as smooth as air, it's not as convenient as taking your own car but it's still the nicest.

Not just inter-city trips either. I take the GO Train into Toronto at least once per week. Even there, packed in there with all the other commuters going to work it still makes me cheerful. I just like trains.

I like to experience things to their fullest and, for me, the train does that. Take the GO Train for example. You show up at the station in the early morning, and wait on the platform for the train to arrive. You're standing there with various people waiting for the train. The sun is low in the sky, you're right out there in the elements. If it's sunny, I'll be right out there, watching the sky, watching cars and people around me, listening to the sounds, smelling the smells (usually just a cigarette from someone standing near me). Just *BEING* there.

If it's cold, or drizzling or even raining lightly, I'll be out there experiencing that too. I'm not one to hide from a bit of weather. It's there to be experienced. If it's cold I'll dress warmly, if it's raining I'll wear my raincoat and hat. I'm here to experience what life has to offer (ok... if it's raining hard I'll seek shelter, but otherwise I'm out there).

Once on the train I'll exchange some pleasantries with the folks around me (usually nothing more than "good morning") before picking up my book. Again, I shun headphones, preferring to hear the sounds around me. When out I like to *BE* out.

I find the experience to be very different from driving or taking other forms of transit. There's just a romance to rail travel. I can't explain it, but I'll continue to love it.

Closet Realizations

Today I did laundry and was hanging up my shirts. Now, this time I had left laundry longer than usual so I was literally washing EVERYTHING.

As I'm hanging things up, I'm trying to space things out a bit in order to allow things to dry reasonably quickly (Dress shirts and pants get hung up wet. This saves both drying costs and, more importantly, ironing.) but I'm having trouble making room for it all.

So I'm looking at my 44" of closet space, wondering what to do, when I realize that I have ANOTHER 44" behind me, completely unoccupied. OK... dress clothes on one side, casual clothes on the other side. Lots of room now.

So why was the other side empty? I guess I was saving it for someone. Even though I've been separated for 4 years now I guess I haven't quite gotten used to it yet. The thing is, I moved into this place as a bachelor.

I guess today I realized that I'm a single man and, between the demands of business and parenthood, am likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. I might as well enjoy the extra closet space.

Why I buy Silver...

Recently I told you about my discussion of precious metals with a professional trader. That's what got my interested. From there I started to research things. Reading, reading, reading. Here's some of what I've learned so far:

• Silver has been recognized as money for close to 4000 years (the English Pound was originally composed of 240 silver pennies, weighing a total of one pound).
• Unlike gold, silver is one of the most versatile industrial metals. While gold is mined and hoarded, silver is consumed.
• In 1980, there were approximately 4 billion oz of silver inventories above ground. In 2007 there were maybe 1 billion.
• Most of the silver which has been consumed (mostly in consumer electronics) is very difficult to recover.
• Historically (400+ years), silver has traded at a ration of about 15:1 with gold. Today it's closer to 50:1.
• There is 4-5 times as much gold in inventory than there is silver.

These and other factors have led me to believe that silver is due to make a big move over the next few years.

More to come...

A random encounter can change your life...

... but you already knew that.

Let me tell you about MY random encounter.

In early March I was at Union Station waiting for my train out of town. While waiting, a man came up to me and asked me if I knew what track his train would be on. I said that I didn't know but pointed to the screen where it would display 10 minutes before departure.

I saw that he was carrying a trade show bag, so I asked him what show he was in town for (just to pass the time). Aparently, there was a mining show in town and he's a professional precious metals speculator. Well, it's always good to know a little bit about everything just in case you're expected to have a conversation about it (example: Classical Music - Bach was a very good contrapunctalist (Not you Andreas :-P)). So, I led off with the one thing I know about precious metals... "Cool, gold's way up there now isn't it?"

Well, that opened the flood gates. His statement was that yes, gold is up in the stratosphere, he expects it to undergo a small correction soon and then head for the moon. But what I REALLY ought to be keeping an eye on is silver.

Well, I listened to his reasons (to be covered in another post) and started my usual process... read and think. Read and think. Read and think. Act. Read and think. Etc., etc.

Two weeks later, I made my first silver purchase. Suffice it to say I was convinced at what I saw. I see precious metals as defense against inflation (in 1964, a gallon of gas was about US$0.30. A 1964 dime was 80% silver and 20% copper. Today, 3 80% silver dimes are worth close to US$4... the price of a gallon of gas). Realistically, this isn't really inflation but devaluation, a symptom of inflation. Also, in the event of a currency crisis gold and silver and especially legal tender coins should be exchangeable for goods and services or whatever currency is in use. If the shit truly hits the fan it'll be worth a whole lot more than the paper we're using now (unless we need toilet paper... $5 bills will be good for that at least).

So, based on someone asking me for directions in a train station I've become interested in precious metals as a way of preserving and increasing my wealth. Some may call me a conspiracy theorist (well, some called me that before), others may call me a survivalist (ok... I have a rough idea of what I'll do if we see a complete breakdown of society).

I just think I'm the same old nut-job you already know and love... ok... know and tolerate.

Expect to hear more from me on this one.

I don't know what this person did... but... WTF??

I asked a client to send me a log file today... I wasn't prepared for what I received.

The e-mail comes in with two attachments. I open them and they're both like this:
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Hmm... looks like Base64 encoding... No problem - I run it through a decoder and get this:

From:
Subject: Job Log: BEX02256.xml
Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2008 10:01:26 -0500
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="unicode"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
Content-Location: file://C:\Documents and Settings\SUZANNE\Local Settings\Temp\logE98.htm
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198
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What?? MORE Base64 encoded text?? At least I now know that the data is HTML and this aberation is courtesy of IE7... Decode it AGAIN and get this:

ÿþ?
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What's with all the question marks??? Wash those out and I get:




Hey! Look! Semi-valid HTML code! Feed that to my browser and I get the log I'm looking for!

How the hell did a user end up with a question mark infested, double-Base64 encoded log file? I'm sure you can't do that by accident...

I am an Engineer....

I've been doing a great deal of thinking about my profession and myself lately. Interviewing other engineers, interviewing non-engineers. It's been a bit of a revelation. I hope this makes sense to most of you....

I am an Engineer; this means I can't look at a new device without having to know how it works. This doesn't mean that I want to know that pushing this button then this button will make it do something cool. I need to understand how the device actually works. If I don't have a basic block diagram in my head with 5 minutes I'm off to do research.

I am an Engineer; this means I'm always conscious of my methods for doing things and trying to find more efficient ways do to them.

I am an Engineer; this means I always insist on people explaining what they are doing and won't let them stop until I understand. This applies to everyone, especially repairmen. The furnace guy HATES me.

I am an Engineer; this means when I'm walking or driving I worry about my routing and whether it is the most efficient. Is it shorter to drive the classic "L path" (following the opposite and adjacent sides of a right-angle triangle) or should one make lots of small turns trying to approximate the hypotenuse?

I am an Engineer; this means that I'm lazy. Very lazy. I will spend 20 hours, figuring out how to do a 10 minute weekly process in 30 seconds, and another 20 figuring out how to never have to do it again.

I am an Engineer; this means that I think I'm pretty damn smart. I also make a point of surrounding myself with other people whom I think are pretty damn smart. If I choose to associate with you, I probably think your smarter than average, you're also likely to be an engineer.

I am an Engineer; this means that I'm always thinking about something. Whether it's something altogether new or a modification of an existing device there's always something rattling around in my head. Things come to me at the most inopportune times and while I'm better at filing them for later I will occasionally blurt out a new idea in mid conversation and ABSOLUTELY HAVE to explore it right away. This sometimes makes me miss meals (though you'd never know to look at me) or a night's sleep. Any time is the right time to innovate. This has been detrimental to most of my personal relationships.

I am an Engineer; this means when I was given a plastic screwdriver at age 2 I immediately began unscrewing anything I could get it into. This includes electrical switch plates. My crowning achievement was the disassembly of my crib. As my father was working nights I had to show my mother how to reassemble it.

I am an Engineer; this means that I follow a basic scientific method for most things. All engineering began as science. Engineering is merely APPLIED science. The science that actually works outside the theorists head. Proven, applicable, repeatable science.

I am an Engineer; I see that the world in composed of two typed of people. Scientists and Engineers and Everyone Else. I'm not referring to professional scientists and professional engineers. I'm also referring to the people who are curious about the world, who have to understand everything they encounter. Those people are the scientists and engineers, even if they're janitors or McDonald's workers. Just as those employed in engineering jobs who want to learn by rote... if X happens do Y. They are not engineers.

I am an Engineer. Not because I have chosen to be but because I have to be.